So Cal Real Estate News

President Obama greets Arizona high school students after announcing his housing plan Wednesday

2/20/09 Details continue to emerge on the President’s newest plan directed at helping those in trouble with their mortgage. One of the better summaries I’ve seen so far was in an e-mail I received from James Liptack, President of the California Realtors’ Association: Read the rest of this entry »

(2/13/09)  In a report released earlier this month, Moody’s “Economy.com” predicts a nationwide home price bottom in metropolitan areas in the 4th quarter of 2009.

While we think that may be possible, we think there are a number of red flags Moody’s may be neglecting.  We’ll explain our own theory of when to buy or sell after we discuss Moody’s new report

Giving some evidence that there’s no recession among economists, you can buy the report for only $3,995 from economy.com, or you can read Moody’s summary and key findings below for free:  Read the rest of this entry »

(by Dave Emerson) Blair, I and our immediate families returned earlier this week from a trip to Tennessee to see with my newest grandchild and Blair’s newest niece , Ivy Grace Sasser, who was born just last week. A child being born, a long journey, even paying taxes (from sales to car rental to air travel to accommodations)–not all that different from that first Christmas in some ways!

Certainly there’s nothing like the miracle of birth–a miracle we’ve been blessed with four times in the last three years as our four amazing grandkids entered the world. God has blessed us with a wonderful family, which helps put some of the craziness of the current economy and Southern California real estate in proper perspective.

The winter holidays help achieve the same thing.

Hanukkah: A celebration of light, freedom, and God’s power

As Christians, Barb and I find inspiration in the story of Hannukkah, and spent some time trying to help our kids understand the significance of the event. In John 10:22 we find Jesus apparently celebrating Hannukah in the temple when his teachings sparked an effort to stone him. While Jesus’ opposition by the religious power structure of his day ultimately resulted in his crucifixion, his appreciation of Hanukkah should motivate Christians of today to at least respect and learn from the events that preceded Christ by about 200 years.

Here is a summary of Hanukkah, or Chanukah, from the orthodox Chabad website:

Chanukah — the eight-day festival of light that begins on the eve of Kislev 25 — celebrates the triumph of light over darkness, of purity over adulteration, of spirituality over materiality.

More than twenty-one centuries ago, the Holy Land was ruled by the Seleucids (Syrian-Greeks), who sought to forcefully Hellenize the people of Israel. Against all odds, a small band of faithful Jews defeated one of the mightiest armies on earth, drove the Greeks from the land, reclaimed the Holy Temple in Jerusalem and rededicated it to the service of G-d.

When they sought to light the Temple’s menorah, they found only a single cruse of olive oil that had escaped contamination by the Greeks; miraculously, the one-day supply burned for eight days, until new oil could be prepared under conditions of ritual purity.

To commemorate and publicize these miracles, the sages instituted the festival of Chanukah. At the heart of the festival is the nightly menorah lighting: a single flame on the first night, two on the second evening, and so on till the eighth night of Chanukah, when all eight lights are kindled.

On Chanukah we also recite Hallel and the Al HaNissim prayer to offer praise and thanksgiving to G-d for “delivering the strong into the hands of the weak, the many into the hands of the few… the wicked into the hands of the righteous.”

Chanukah customs include eating foods fried in oil — latkes (potato pancakes) and sufganiot (doughnuts); playing with the dreidel (a spinning top on which are inscribed the Hebrew letters nun, gimmel, hei and shin, an acronym for Nes Gadol Hayah Sham, “a great miracle happened there”); and the giving of Chanukah gelt, gifts of money, to children.

Click here for the complete story of Chanukah, and here for a comprehensive “How To” guide for the observances and customs of Chanukah.

Christmas: A celebration of joy, peace, and God’s love

About 170 years after the Maccabean victory celebrated by Hanukkah, Christians believe God again miraculously sent light and deliverance into the world, this time in the form of an infant who was son of both man and of God, the ultimate gift of love.

This time we’ll let first century physician and historian and Gospel writer Luke fill in the details of that first Christmas, roughly 20 centuries ago about 12 miles outside of modern Jerusalem:

The Birth of Jesus Christ

2:1 In those days a decree went out from Caesar Augustus that all the world should be registered. 2 This was the first registration when Quirinius was governor of Syria. 3 And all went to be registered, each to his own town. 4 And Joseph also went up from Galilee, from the town of Nazareth, to Judea, to the city of David, which is called Bethlehem, because he was of the house and lineage of David, 5 to be registered with Mary, his betrothed, who was with child. 6 And while they were there, the time came for her to give birth. 7 And she gave birth to her firstborn son and wrapped him in swaddling cloths and laid him in a manger, because there was no place for them in the inn.

The Shepherds and the Angels

8 And in the same region there were shepherds out in the field, keeping watch over their flock by night. 9 And an angel of the Lord appeared to them, and the glory of the Lord shone around them, and they were filled with fear. 10 And the angel said to them, “Fear not, for behold, I bring you good news of great joy that will be for all the people. 11 For unto you is born this day in the city of David a Savior, who is Christ the Lord. 12 And this will be a sign for you: you will find a baby wrapped in swaddling cloths and lying in a manger.” 13 And suddenly there was with the angel a multitude of the heavenly host praising God and saying,

14 “Glory to God in the highest,
and on earth peace among those with whom he is pleased!”

15 When the angels went away from them into heaven, the shepherds said to one another, “Let us go over to Bethlehem and see this thing that has happened, which the Lord has made known to us.” 16 And they went with haste and found Mary and Joseph, and the baby lying in a manger. 17 And when they saw it, they made known the saying that had been told them concerning this child. 18 And all who heard it wondered at what the shepherds told them. 19 But Mary treasured up all these things, pondering them in her heart. 20 And the shepherds returned, glorifying and praising God for all they had heard and seen, as it had been told them. (Luke 2:1 - 19, English Standard Version)

Barb and I hope your Holiday celebrations look beyond the food, sales, and stresses to the love, joy, peace, light, and power that G-d himself wants to give each of us as we trust in him. May your family’s holiday celebrations be blessed!

(12/19/08) Back on August 30th we essentially called a bottom this winter for single family homes in established neighborhoods in Southern California’s coastal plain. Then the time bomb that was the real estate crisis finally exploded, threatening to take down the global economy.

This being an election year. the government sprung into unprecedented action. . . repeatedly. Just this Monday we saw the Federal Reserve dramatically slash the fed funds rate to. . . zero!

Where’s that leave the Southern California real estate market. Pretty much where we were back on August 30th, when we wrote the following:

Where to buy now: While we believe recovery for the desert area and the Inland Empire may not come unti spring of 2010, we now believe the next four months are likely to present the best buying opportunities for most property classes in the coastal plain of Los Angeles and Orange Counties.

Why? As we’ve indicated in “Our Two R.E. Market Cycles,” in most years both sales volume and prices for homes going into escrow tend to bottom in November and December. People are too busy preparing for the holidays to buy homes but lenders and builders are trying to unload inventory before year’s end.  It’s almost like an annual “year end clearance” sale for real estate.

With the number of homes going into foreclosure beginning to decline and effects of the federal housing relief bill beginning to kick in (see “The good news about the ‘Housing and Economic Recovery Act’ “), we think the odds now are that this winter’s apt to be as good as it gets for buyers looking in the more built out areas of So Cal.

What’s more, interest rates are still near historical lows and are expected to gradually rise over the years ahead.  Very low prices and rates make for an excellent buying opportunity.

Finally, there are literally hundreds of thousands of buyers sitting on the fence right now waiting for the market to bottom.  Once they all sense the time is right, you’ll have far more competition from other buyers than you have right now.  If you’re not early, you’ll be late.   Once everybody recognizes a golden opportunity, it’s too late to take advantage of it.

Due to the annual cycle, we know activity’s apt to pick up starting 12/26, we think the prudent buyer should at least get her feet wet in the market now.  (From “Who should buy Southern California Real Estate between now and Christmas?”)

Please don’t misunderstand.  We continue to believe that we’re in uncharted territory and nobody can be absolutely certain what will come next (see our classic post from November, 2007: “How low will prices go?“).  But the further we get into this dramatic downturn, the more clearly we can see what may well be the bottom.

What we know:

You don’t sell Southern California real estate for 30 years without learning a few things about our real estate cycle.  And we can observe a few other things from current market activity–activity that Data Quick won’t report until mid March when today’s purchase contracts show up in the February medians.   So here’s some things we know for sure or are fairly certain of:

1. The bottom for sales volume in Southern California real estate was passed last winter.  Year-over-year sales figures are up dramatically, fueled by the foreclosure bargains and other distressed sales such as “short sales.”
2. The volume of sales entering the foreclosure market is beginning to decline, especially in the stable (established–not new) areas of the Coastal Plain.  Homes financed with the worst of the subprime loans have already been foreclosed and resold.  There is not an infinite supply of such homes.  In addition, a variety of federal programs for distressed homeowners are beginnning to kick in.
3. Most well-priced bank owned homes in Southern California’s coastal plain are getting competing offers.
4. Interest rates are exceptionally low.
5. The fed is working hard to get banks to lend more, relaxing their over-reaction to the mortgage crisis.
6. Real estate sales and prices almost always bottom in December (which is reflected in DataQuick closing stats for February and March).
7. Even in the unlikely event unemployment reached 10%, 90% of the population would still be employed.
8. Home prices in Southern California have been rolled back to 2003 levels.
9. Combining low prices with low interest rates makes Southern California homes more affordable than they have been in many, many years. . . possibly since the bottom of the last recession.
10. Dramatic cut backs by builders are reducing the available supply of housing units.
11. Southern California still has the best climate, most diverse economy and most innovative economy in the nation.

All in all, there’s a very good chance this may be the best time to buy.

(12/6/08)  Today I’m writing as a native Southern Californian who’s lived here all of my 58 years, not as a Realtor.

Every now and then it hits me what a very special place I’m privileged to live in.  Today’s one of those days.  There are many things to love about Southern California, here are a few that hit me today:

1. The weather: December 6th, 2008.  Forecast high in my home town of Los Alamitos in the mid 70s.  Low in the fifties.  Crystal clear, warm, sunny day.  I took my shirt off when I went outside to jog a couple miles.  We went to a local Christmas parade last night in shirt sleeves.
2. The sunshine: Every year I tally in my journal the number of days I don’t see the sun.  It averages about five.  Somehow, it seems like we get most of the little rain we get at night.  And almost never on the Rose Parade.  I tell my friends that was the deal the Rose Association made with God about a hundred years ago.  No Rose Parade on Sundays, so people can get to chuirch, and no rain on their parade!  Maybe the NFL should try that one!
3. The geography: I live about 12 minutes from the beach.  1 minute from a nice local park.  An hour from the San Gabriel Mountains, which include a peak over 10,000 feet high and two major ski resorts.  To the east, the San Bernardino Mountains include a peak over 12,000 feet high, several alpine lakes, and three more major ski areas.  I could see both mountain ranges clearly this morning, as well as Mt. San Jacinto, just South of Palm Springs.  (Did I mention the deserts?)  It’s not all that hard to snowboard (or ski) and surf (or boogie board) on the same day, but I would recommend a wet suit for the Pacific in winter.
4. The rivalry: Right now, I’m taking a break from the USC - UCLA game, where my Westwood alma mater is doing better than expected. . . so far.  USC-UCLA is the only true cross-town rivalry among NCAA Division 1 schools in the country! Both schools are within the Los Angeles city limits, only about 12 miles apart.  Many USC students live in Westwood, by UCLA.  When I went to UCLA, it wasn’t uncommon for athletes from the rival schools to room together.  My best friend in high school went to USC while I went to UCLA.

Rival banners are flying throughout my neighborhood.  Three  of the sixteen families on my cul-de-sac have UCLA alum, but we have SC season seat holders & alum anchoring the start of the street.  My mother and I both graduated from UCLA, my son’s girlfriend hopes to go there.  My boss is a USC alumn.  Both are great schools with great traditions.  And a great, but generally friendly rivalry.  As a tribute to the Trojans, let me share the words to USC’s famous Fight Song, at least the way I learned them at UCLA (with apologies to my friends from “Figueroa Tech”):

Fight on!  for USC.

You pay a fee; you get a degree!

You’ll be smarter than me, because I went to USC!

I went to USC!  I went to USC!

Just kidding.  I think they’re both great schools, one public, one private, two of several dozen outstanding colleges and Universities ranging from Cal Tech to the University of San Diego.

I could go on and on.  Diversity.  Opportunity.  Culture.  Great churches.  Great museums.  Great beaches.  Great mountain biking.  Over 100 languages spoken in local schools.  Forward thinking.

Sure, we’ve got a lot of people, but locals figure out ways to deal with and even enjoy it.

For me. So Cal is a wonderful place to live year round.  If you live someplace else and want to move here, I just happen to know a good So Cal Realtor.  Actually, quite a few, since Blair and I mainly cover  West Orange County and Greater Long Beach.

Happy Holidays from Southern California!

(by Dave Emerson)  In the midst of all the current bad news, we found some good news for you!d

One class of real property is up almost 9% from a year ago.  The price increases are shutting out some new buyers!  Can you guess what it is?

According to an artilce in Tuesday, November 18th’s Christian Science Monitor, it’s farmland.

In Iowa, farm land is up 18% from a year ago.  In South Dakota it’s up 21%.

Several reasons are cited, but the primary one is an increase in profits from agriculture.  A large part of that results from the big push for ethanol produced from corn.  That drives up corn prices, which in turn drives up beef prices, among other things.  It’s also driven up our cost of groceries.  More unintended consequences from our beloved federal government!

Here in California, however, up until a few years ago farmland prices across the state were being driven up by contractors buying farms to build new homes.  Obviously, the price of land for housing has dropped dramatically over the last few years.

So, if you’ve been hankering for a dairy farm outside of Victorville or to grow cotton outside of Fresno, you may be looking at your golden opportunity.  In 20-30 years, you should be able to sell out to a developer & retire, or rebuy farmland further out of town.

That’s what dozens of Dutch dairy farmers have been doing as long as I’ve been alive.  When I was growing up what’s now Cerritos was Dairy Valley.  No valley, but lots of dairies.  Those prudent Dutch farmers sold out & moved to Chino back in the late 1960s.  20-30 years later they repeated the process, moving even further out.

Over the long haul, very few investors have lost money in real estate.  It’s the short haul where folks get into trouble.

Political humorist Will Rogers had a lot of great sayings that relate to our current economic turmoil:

An economist’s guess is liable to be as good as anybody else’s.

Ancient Rome declined because it had a Senate, now what’s going to happen to us with both a House and a Senate?

I don’t make jokes. I just watch the government and report the facts.

We always want the best man to win an election. Unfortunately, he never runs.

If Stupidity got us into this mess, then why can’t it get us out?

But my favorite is his oft-quoted mantra about investing:

Buy land, God ain’t making any more of it!

Just ask those corn farmers in South Dakota.  Or those retired milionaire dairy farmers who started out in So Cal’s Dairy Valley years ago.

(11/17/08)  The following links to resources for fire victims are pasted in from the California Association of Realtors’ website.  Feel free to post other helpful information as a comment.  (No comment box below?  Click the blue “Comment(s)” just under the headline.)

Help is available.  Take it one day at a time and, by the grace of God, you’ll get through it.

What To Do After the Fire

Apply for FEMA Disaster Relief Funds
http://www.fema.gov/assistance/index.shtm
Those affected by the California wildfire should apply for assistance by calling toll-free to (800) 621-FEMA (3362).  Disaster victims may register by calling this number.  You do not have to wait to go to a disaster assistance center.  The number for speech and hearing impaired individuals is (800) 462-7585.  Federal disaster assistance available for residents and businesses in the affected counties includes temporary housing assistance, disaster loans and other needs assistance grants.

CARe!
http://www.carehelp.org/
Provides free disaster recovery help, information and guidance in the Poway, Rancho Bernardo, Lakeside and East County.

C.A.R. Legal and Tax Assistance Links
C.A.R.’s legal What’s New page offers links and information on tax, legal and other issues for wildfire victims.

FHA Mortgage Insurance for Disaster Victims
http://www.hud.gov/offices/hsg/sfh/ins/203h-dft.cfm
The Section 203(h) program allows the Federal Housing Administration (FHA) to insure mortgages made by qualified lenders to victims of a major disaster who have lost their homes and are in the process of rebuilding or buying another home.

Governor’s Office of Emergency Services: November Southern California Fires
http://www.oes.ca.gov/WebPage/oeswebsite.nsf/Content/BE714C2AD6CF5CC088257503000412BE
The California office of Emergency Services provides information and links to various sites for information about assistance programs for wildfire victims.

San Bernardino County Office of Emergency Services
http://www.sbcfire.org/oes/site_links.asp
The County of San Bernardino has launched a temporary phone service to offer information about resources for wildfire victims, including information on shelters, school, road closures, and various social services.

American Red Cross: Picking up the pieces after a fire
http://www.redcross.org/services/disaster/0,1082,0_569_,00.html
Created by the American Red Cross, this information encourages you to take precautions to help stay safe and speed up your recovery after a fire.  It also offers ideas on what you can do to help make yourself and your home safer in the future.

Disaster Recovery: A guide to financial issues
http://www.redcross.org/services/disaster/beprepared/FinRecovery/
This free guide offered as a public service of the American Institute of Certified Public Accountants (AICPA), AICPA Foundation, the American Red Cross, and the National Endowment for Financial Education® (NEFE®), provides financial recovery information to victims of disaster.

Claims personnel from Farmers Insurance Group of Companies® deployed to SoCal
http://www.farmers.com/FarmComm/catastrophe.html
Customers who have been ordered to evacuate, have suffered damage, or lost their home because of the widespread wildfires, should immediately contact Farmers’ 24 hour claims hotline (800) HelpPoint (435-7764) for immediate assistance.  Customer care centers have been established at
• Kennedy High School, 11254 Gothic Avenue in Granada Hills, CA
• San Fernando High School, 11133 O’Melveny Avenue in San Fernando, CA
• Sylmar High School, 13050 Borden Avenue in Sylmar, CA 91352

Mercury Insurance standing by to assist wildfire victim customers
http://mercuryinsurance.com/corporate/pdf/SoCalWildfiresRelease111608.pdf
Customers of Mercury Insurance who have suffered property loss and/or damage can report claims 24 hours a day, seven days a week by calling (800) 503-3724.

Insurance-Related Issues

California Department of Insurance Wildfire Information
http://www.insurance.ca.gov
DOI can be contacted for general information and guidance about insurance claims by calling (800) 927-HELP (4357).

United Policyholders Addresses Insurance Issues
http://www.unitedpolicyholders.org/disaster/tip_recovery.html#CA
United Policyholders, a non-profit charity, publishes reliable, free buying tips and honest, “road-tested” practical claim advice.

Fire Preparedness Information

What to Take When You Evacuate
http://www.redcross.org/services/disaster/0,1082,0_6_,00.html
A list from the American Red Cross about what to take during voluntary and immediate evacuations.

Animals Lost in Disaster
http://www.disastercenter.com/pets/animals.htm
Information for people who have lost pets, livestock, or other animals during a disaster.Tips to Mitigate Risks and Losses Resulting from Fire
Prepared by the American Red Cross http://www.redcross.org/services/disaster/0,1082,0_584_,00.html

Spanish-language information:
http://www.redcross.org/services/disaster/foreignmat/resfispn.html

Talking About Fires with Children
http://www.disastercenter.com/guide/fire.html
Information from the California Disaster Center to help prepare families for fire, including developing a family disaster plan.

Information from the American Red Cross about Disasters and…

Children: http://www.redcross.org/services/disaster/0,1082,0_602_,00.html

Seniors: http://www.redcross.org/services/disaster/0,1082,0_9_,00.html

Pets: http://www.redcross.org/services/disaster/0,1082,0_604_,00.html

Farm Animals: http://www.redcross.org/services/disaster/0,1082,0_11_,00.html

Financial Preparedness: http://www.redcross.org/services/disaster/0,1082,0_605_,00.html

Creating a Family Disaster Plan
http://www.disastercenter.com/guide/family.htm
Steps to take to create a family disaster plan to expedite voluntary and forced evacuations in the event of an emergency.