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	<title>Comments on: An upbeat revision of on our Southern California home price projections</title>
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	<description>Real Estate News and Perspective from the Front Lines</description>
	<pubDate>Mon, 22 Mar 2010 09:22:57 +0000</pubDate>
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		<title>By: Blair Newman and Dave Emerson</title>
		<link>http://socalrealestatenews.com/blog/an-optimistic-update-on-our-market-pricing-projections/comment-page-1/#comment-1059</link>
		<dc:creator>Blair Newman and Dave Emerson</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 29 Jul 2008 23:52:25 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://socalrealestatenews.com/blog/?p=216#comment-1059</guid>
		<description>Francisco and Bubble,

Always appreciate a reader taking the time to post a comment.  This interactivity is one of the best things about the web.

Actually, when I wrote this post last Friday details were still coming out on the housing bill.  I checked several sources on the tax credit, and none mentioned the pay-back provision on it, and I do want to thank you both for calling it to my attention.  

In fact, when I first read francisco's comment I thought he must be confusing it with the payback part of the loan refinance component of the bill.

But the Detroit Free Press confirms the details you both shared, and we've already added them to the description of the tax credit in the post above.  

That's another thing I love about electronic media--changes at the speed of light.  Compared to reprinting &amp; remailing newsletter--there's no comparison!

The payback certainly reduces the impact of the credit, but doesn't eliminate it.  It's still very helpful for most full time buyers to have a 15 year interest-free loan. 

BTW, we don't think it's such a bad idea for the credit to be paid back over time.  Methinks it's another of the positive compromises in the bill.  Amazing what can happen when a crises forces our two parties to work together.

While the phaseout of the credit for high income taxpayers would lessen the incentive for a few higher end buyers, in our experience the vast majority of first time buyers in Southern California have combined incomes well below $150,000.  And buyers in that income range have less need of a $7,500 tax free loan anyway.  Again, we think that's a prudent provision and we applaud it.

BTW, Bubble, if I was really trying to "trick suckers into buying homes,"  would I be telling them there's a 60% chance the bottom is a year or more away.

Whether people agree with us or not, Blair and I try to always present the truth as we see it on this site, based on our 30+ years' experience and what we see every day on real estate's front lines. 


I don't think anyone has built a referral-based business over 30 years by lying to people!  And even if someone had, it would still be wrong!

What we're basically saying is, the future's uncertain, the housing bill is a step in the right direction and the bottom might be closer than a lot of people think.  Or not.  

So, when nobody really knows what's next, personal considerations  need to be given at least as much weight as speculative market timing consideration.

If you find a home you love in a good location at a price you can afford with a 30-year fixed loan, and you're not going to be moving any time soon, now might be a good time to pull the trigger &amp; buy it.  Because nobody really knows what's going to happen next.  Even those who think they do.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Francisco and Bubble,</p>
<p>Always appreciate a reader taking the time to post a comment.  This interactivity is one of the best things about the web.</p>
<p>Actually, when I wrote this post last Friday details were still coming out on the housing bill.  I checked several sources on the tax credit, and none mentioned the pay-back provision on it, and I do want to thank you both for calling it to my attention.  </p>
<p>In fact, when I first read francisco&#8217;s comment I thought he must be confusing it with the payback part of the loan refinance component of the bill.</p>
<p>But the Detroit Free Press confirms the details you both shared, and we&#8217;ve already added them to the description of the tax credit in the post above.  </p>
<p>That&#8217;s another thing I love about electronic media&#8211;changes at the speed of light.  Compared to reprinting &#038; remailing newsletter&#8211;there&#8217;s no comparison!</p>
<p>The payback certainly reduces the impact of the credit, but doesn&#8217;t eliminate it.  It&#8217;s still very helpful for most full time buyers to have a 15 year interest-free loan. </p>
<p>BTW, we don&#8217;t think it&#8217;s such a bad idea for the credit to be paid back over time.  Methinks it&#8217;s another of the positive compromises in the bill.  Amazing what can happen when a crises forces our two parties to work together.</p>
<p>While the phaseout of the credit for high income taxpayers would lessen the incentive for a few higher end buyers, in our experience the vast majority of first time buyers in Southern California have combined incomes well below $150,000.  And buyers in that income range have less need of a $7,500 tax free loan anyway.  Again, we think that&#8217;s a prudent provision and we applaud it.</p>
<p>BTW, Bubble, if I was really trying to &#8220;trick suckers into buying homes,&#8221;  would I be telling them there&#8217;s a 60% chance the bottom is a year or more away.</p>
<p>Whether people agree with us or not, Blair and I try to always present the truth as we see it on this site, based on our 30+ years&#8217; experience and what we see every day on real estate&#8217;s front lines. </p>
<p>I don&#8217;t think anyone has built a referral-based business over 30 years by lying to people!  And even if someone had, it would still be wrong!</p>
<p>What we&#8217;re basically saying is, the future&#8217;s uncertain, the housing bill is a step in the right direction and the bottom might be closer than a lot of people think.  Or not.  </p>
<p>So, when nobody really knows what&#8217;s next, personal considerations  need to be given at least as much weight as speculative market timing consideration.</p>
<p>If you find a home you love in a good location at a price you can afford with a 30-year fixed loan, and you&#8217;re not going to be moving any time soon, now might be a good time to pull the trigger &#038; buy it.  Because nobody really knows what&#8217;s going to happen next.  Even those who think they do.</p>
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		<title>By: dutchtrader</title>
		<link>http://socalrealestatenews.com/blog/an-optimistic-update-on-our-market-pricing-projections/comment-page-1/#comment-1055</link>
		<dc:creator>dutchtrader</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 29 Jul 2008 22:59:44 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://socalrealestatenews.com/blog/?p=216#comment-1055</guid>
		<description>I think when we bottom has to do with how much more price declines we have left.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I think when we bottom has to do with how much more price declines we have left.</p>
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		<title>By: National Bubble</title>
		<link>http://socalrealestatenews.com/blog/an-optimistic-update-on-our-market-pricing-projections/comment-page-1/#comment-1051</link>
		<dc:creator>National Bubble</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 29 Jul 2008 17:38:11 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://socalrealestatenews.com/blog/?p=216#comment-1051</guid>
		<description>Realtor Dave says: "A tax credit of up to $7,500 for first time buyers who close escrow between 4/9/08 and 7/1/09.”

But Dave is not telling his readers that you only get the tax credit if your adjusted gross income is less than 75K for single or 150K for married couples (which right there excludes a large portion of OC home buyers)

Also, Dave is not telling his readers that the tax credit has to be paid back (interest free) in 15 years so you are just getting an interest free loan and if you sell the house within 15 years you have to pay the loan back right away.

Dave, I’m disappointed to see that you are exploiting the housing bill to try to trick more suckers into buying homes. If you are going to talk about the tax credit on your site, you should at least tell people the whole truth. Not telling the whole truth is what got us in this housing mess to begin with. I can see that you realtors never learn.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Realtor Dave says: &#8220;A tax credit of up to $7,500 for first time buyers who close escrow between 4/9/08 and 7/1/09.”</p>
<p>But Dave is not telling his readers that you only get the tax credit if your adjusted gross income is less than 75K for single or 150K for married couples (which right there excludes a large portion of OC home buyers)</p>
<p>Also, Dave is not telling his readers that the tax credit has to be paid back (interest free) in 15 years so you are just getting an interest free loan and if you sell the house within 15 years you have to pay the loan back right away.</p>
<p>Dave, I’m disappointed to see that you are exploiting the housing bill to try to trick more suckers into buying homes. If you are going to talk about the tax credit on your site, you should at least tell people the whole truth. Not telling the whole truth is what got us in this housing mess to begin with. I can see that you realtors never learn.</p>
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		<title>By: francisco salinas</title>
		<link>http://socalrealestatenews.com/blog/an-optimistic-update-on-our-market-pricing-projections/comment-page-1/#comment-1046</link>
		<dc:creator>francisco salinas</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 29 Jul 2008 06:20:34 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://socalrealestatenews.com/blog/?p=216#comment-1046</guid>
		<description>I think you are way off. I see more financial institutions folding, more writedowns, and lending constricting. The $7500 credit which needs to be repaid in 15 years or when you sell your house in one lump sum is not enough to stimulate the housing market. We are nowhere near bottom. The bottom  will come when banks start flowing smoothly again and that can take a while. The feds are doing what they can to help this transition but the problem is much bigger than that. Americans are in debt, the United States is in debt, a blank check from the feds will not solve evrything, we need new legislation, more foreign investment and more importantly we need to change our way of thinking. Even when this market bottoms you can forget about it appreciating at a normal rate. It will be a slow upward climb.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I think you are way off. I see more financial institutions folding, more writedowns, and lending constricting. The $7500 credit which needs to be repaid in 15 years or when you sell your house in one lump sum is not enough to stimulate the housing market. We are nowhere near bottom. The bottom  will come when banks start flowing smoothly again and that can take a while. The feds are doing what they can to help this transition but the problem is much bigger than that. Americans are in debt, the United States is in debt, a blank check from the feds will not solve evrything, we need new legislation, more foreign investment and more importantly we need to change our way of thinking. Even when this market bottoms you can forget about it appreciating at a normal rate. It will be a slow upward climb.</p>
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		<title>By: Dave Emerson</title>
		<link>http://socalrealestatenews.com/blog/an-optimistic-update-on-our-market-pricing-projections/comment-page-1/#comment-1027</link>
		<dc:creator>Dave Emerson</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 27 Jul 2008 20:31:31 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://socalrealestatenews.com/blog/?p=216#comment-1027</guid>
		<description>Vespatian--

Always appreciate a comment, even when you disagree.  

The most contradictory &amp; wishy washy is a pretty high standard--I'm not even a politician or a lawyer.  Maybe I should be?

Actually, if I was that contradictory, you should have found something to agree with!

Seriously, when there are lots of conflicting currents, I think it's best not to pretend to know more than you do.  My crystal ball fogged up about three years ago, &amp; it's still in the shop.  Funny thing--everybody else from Ford Motor Co. to the Federal Reserve seemed to experience the same problem.

I'm jut saying I'm seeing some glimmers of light at the end of the tunnel.

Hopefully it's not an oncoming train!</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Vespatian&#8211;</p>
<p>Always appreciate a comment, even when you disagree.  </p>
<p>The most contradictory &amp; wishy washy is a pretty high standard&#8211;I&#8217;m not even a politician or a lawyer.  Maybe I should be?</p>
<p>Actually, if I was that contradictory, you should have found something to agree with!</p>
<p>Seriously, when there are lots of conflicting currents, I think it&#8217;s best not to pretend to know more than you do.  My crystal ball fogged up about three years ago, &amp; it&#8217;s still in the shop.  Funny thing&#8211;everybody else from Ford Motor Co. to the Federal Reserve seemed to experience the same problem.</p>
<p>I&#8217;m jut saying I&#8217;m seeing some glimmers of light at the end of the tunnel.</p>
<p>Hopefully it&#8217;s not an oncoming train!</p>
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		<title>By: Vespatian</title>
		<link>http://socalrealestatenews.com/blog/an-optimistic-update-on-our-market-pricing-projections/comment-page-1/#comment-1025</link>
		<dc:creator>Vespatian</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 27 Jul 2008 18:38:32 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://socalrealestatenews.com/blog/?p=216#comment-1025</guid>
		<description>Undoubtedly the most contradictory, wishy washy so-called analysis I have ever read.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Undoubtedly the most contradictory, wishy washy so-called analysis I have ever read.</p>
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