A while back we changed the “theme” or design template we used, but one of the changes we hadn’t thought about was the date of the post moved from the top of the post to the end.

But there’s no reason I can’t put the date at the start of the post manually. On future posts, I’ll plan on doing that, and eventually maybe get back to update the existing posts.

In the mean time, you can always scroll to the end of the post, where you’ll find the original posting date in the light blue box below the tags and above the comments section.

Thanks for taking the time to comment–appreciate your input. Your feedback helps us clarify our posts–it’s one reason we like a blog so much more than a static newsletter like we used to snail mail out.

To clarify, we believe:

1. This is a unique downturn with too many unpredictable factors for anyone to know for sure what’s next.

2. That said, the earliest likely “bottom” for most of Southern California, in our opinion, would be this coming winter, simply due to the number of foreclosures already in the “pipeline” (N.o.D’s filed recently thru homes already foreclosed but not on the market).

3. If you were to hold a gun to my head, I’d say the most likely bottom would probably be next winter–about 20 months away.

4. Prices are most likely to decline anywhere from an additional 5% to 20% in most So Cal areas, but each area and price range is somewhat different.

5. For many buyers personal situation may trump market timing, which is always a bit of a gamble.

For example, when I started exchanging from SFRs into units in 1994, most people thought the bottom was a long ways off. I bought then because I could get a break even cash flow with a fixed loan with minimal down, so it worked for me. I ended up getting “lucky” by buying as the market was turning and as So Cal’s economy came back much stronger than expected. But when I started buying, everyone thought an additional drop was in store.

6. For some specific classes of buyers, listed in the post, now might be a good time to start looking. A good enough bargain that works for you might be worth picking up now, even if median prices decline another 20%, which may or may not happen.

As for the Bible quote at the end, we’re not “Bible thumpers,” but we think a blog should reflect some of the blogger’s beliefs and values. We do think the words of Jesus we linked to at the end of the post reflect an amazingly timeless wisdom on material possessions.

It’s one of my favorite passages from Jesus’ “Sermon on the Mount,” and it helps me keep a perspective on the occasional insanity of the marketplace.

Please don’t feel obligated to click to references that don’t interest you, and please don’t think we’re trying to say we’re presenting “God’s view on real estate” here. Just passing on a passage we find profound, and something you probably won’t find on too many real estate posts.

Hope you stick around & keep commenting. We value your input, Danny.