So Cal Real Estate News

As you may know, a few weeks ago we started what we hope will be the first of several local real estate blogs with LakewoodRealEstateNews.com. Blair and I work both sides of the L.A./Orange County line, and we hope to later add possibly Long Beach and West Orange County blogs as well, maybe more.  You can’t live in Southern California for over 50 years and sell real estate here for almost 30 without getting to know quite a few communities.

Earlier today we put up a post there based on my first home purchase way back in 1976.  We focused primarily on some unique situations in Lakewood, but there are some interesting issues that apply to most Southern California communities.  Especially interesting was a price and rate comparison between 1976 and 2008.  Maybe we’re closer to the bottom than I thought, even with IndyMac’s failure today and all the problems with Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

If you’re interested, this link will take you straight to today’s post, “How to pick a Realtor:  Don’t make the mistake I did!”

Enjoy. . . and learn–from my mistakes!

A week ago I told L.A. Times real estate reporter Peter Hong that much of a Realtor’s job in this market involves delivering bad news to homeowners. Pretty much the opposite of three years ago.

“You go from being like a doctor who delivers babies,” in a booming real estate market, I said, “to being an oncologist, just giving people bad news all day long.” (”Foreclosure glut further depresses housing prices“) Shoot the messenger time. Or keep dialing until the seller finds an agent who tells her what she wants to hear. (See #1 in “5 ways NOT to pick an agent.”)

Well, today brought more bad news for homeowners.

But that’s just one side of the coin. Unlike our 1980-82 housing bust, where mortgage rates topping at 16% were bad news for BOTH sellers and buyers, today’s bad news for sellers is good news for buyers.

Which can turn it into good news for some sellers who might also be buyers, and several other types of buyers:

First, this could be an excellent time to buy for “move out” sellers who are headed to more overbuilt areas like the Inland Empire, Vegas, Texas, or the Central Valley. That’s because prices there have generally dropped more than prices in Southern California’s coastal plain.

Such a “move out” seller can get her current home in escrow, then take her time looking in that outlying area, as prices continue to decline. There are plenty of homes to choose from, and lots of motivated sellers out there.

Folks who are willing to sacrifice a little temporary inconvenience for a lot of greenbacks & that elusive “perfect” home should consider renting in their new community while they continue to look. A buyer with cash in hand is in the best negotiating position, too. This move also lets you take advantage of the annual real estate market cycle (See “Market Predictions 101: Our 2 real estate market cycles“.

Second, the time may also be right for “Move Down” sellers, especially those looking to buy a condo. Since we’ve had a glut of condo building through much of our area, even coastal plain condos are experiencing rapidly declining values and lots of foreclosures.

The same goes for the more modest “starter” single family homes, which turn over more often and have more subprime loans and foreclosures. These aren’t just “blue collar” communities like Stanton or North Long Beach, but also communities like Lakewood, Cypress or even parts of Mission Viejo, which include large tracts originally build for first time buyers.

Third, this might be the right time to buy for people who are ready to settle into their dream home now. Specifically:

1. Buyers who will be living in this home for many years, and
2. Who have good credit, a down payment, and
3. Are tired of renting and are ready for the joys and trials of home ownership, and
4. Would like to start the 15 - 30 year process of paying off a mortgage so they can retire, and
5. Could use two of the three last great tax write-offs (mortgage interest, property tax, and donations), and
6. Are able to locate and negotiate an acceptable price on their “dream home.”

These buyers also might want to nail down the kids new school for next year. Maybe they’ve figured out that they want to enjoy their “dream home” while their kids are still at home. Maybe they’re concerned about interest rates going up. Maybe they know they’ve got busier times ahead & now’s the best time to look for a home & fix it up the way they want.

Maybe they know what we’ve been saying since last November: Nobody knows for sure what’s ahead. (See “How low will prices go?“)

Forth, this may well be an excellent time to buy for those whose personal situation suggests it. Someone who’s relocating into California, whether for work, family, or retirement. Someone who desperately needs a tax break. There are lots of different scenarios where personal situation trumps market speculation.

Some people would prefer to gamble with their stocks or in Vegas but not with home ownership. We believe there are plenty of things far more important than money (See “What to do when nobody knows what’s next,” “A little perspective,” and “A little more perspective.”)

Fifth, this might be a great time for buyers who appreciate the security of buying before or near the bottom.

Prices are already down 20% or more in many Southern California neighborhoods, interest rates are low, especially with inflation looming, and some special jumbo loan programs will be expiring soon. Why not take advantage of it?

Truth is, the best time to negotiate is just before the bottom. While prices don’t shoot up dramatically, the ultra motivated sellers and the super buys do disappear fairly quickly. And you never know it’s a bottom for sure until a year or two passes.

To take a very recent example, in January of 2007 we experienced a temporary “false bottom” caused by dropping rates and seasonal demand. In December I could find 10 - 12 low priced “super bargains” in Rossmoor, a popular west Orange County neighborhood. Within a month, they were all gone! We saw the same thing late in 2001 after the Fed dropped rates in the wake of 9/11.

Both 9/11/01 and 1/07 illustrate two things:

1. Super bargains disappear quickly when the market heads up.
2. You can only be sure of a bottom when you’re looking back months or even years later.

The “double dip” recession that started here in So Cal in 1989 during Gulf War I, then reversed to a new peak in 1990, then collapsed into the end-of-the-Cold-War bust of 1991 - 95 is a great example of # 2.

A personal story. During the ‘91 - ‘95 bust, Barb and I did not enjoy watching our rental homes decline in value, even as my income from real estate sales was also tumbling. But I wanted to avoid hefty taxes from selling those homes, many of which we’d owed for along time.

One day my colleague, John Spear, mentioned in passing that multi family properties in Long Beach had dropped to prices as low as four times Gross Rent. That means the price was down to 4 x the annual rent for some apartments.

Well, since apartments generally produce more income than single family homes, I decided it was time to use the wonderful tool of the 1031 Starker Delayed Exchange to convert our rental homes into rental apartment buildings. That way, even if the market continued to drop, at least we’d have some positive cash flow.

At that point, it looked like prices would continue to drop for years to come. A popular New York financial analyst wrote a syndicated column about how Southern California would never recover. Ever.

As they say, it’s always darkest just before the dawn. Turns out, I was buying at the bottom, but I didn’t know it. Possibly the best financial move (other than structured donations) that Barb & I ever made. And we didn’t even know it at the time. We were just lucky. Blessed, actually.

Bottom line?

If you can find a home you love and can afford with a 30-year or 15-year fixed mortgage, in a location you love, maybe it’s time to stop betting on further drops and become a homeowner. Even a professional gambler knows when to cash in his chips.

At least some of them. You could always pick up a rental or vacation home later on if prices continue to drop.

At least it might be time to start looking. Even if we all think the bottom’s still a ways off.

Only God knows for sure.

And He agrees with us that there are things far more important than money (see Matthew 6:19 - 34).

May 21 update: Ongoing increases in foreclosures and long term interest rates now make us more inclined to think that the bottom may be further off than we had hoped.

That doesn’t significantly alter our basic conclusions in this post, but it should at a little more caution. And a little more hope for those who are still saving for a down and seeking to improve their credit.

We recommend you check out today’s post on the subject: “Oh-oh! We just passed a nationwide bottom!.”

Today another chaotic day on the world’s various “Wall Streets” coincided with mop-up operations for me on a six unit apartment building. By the end of the day I was reminded that the basics work in any market.

As Solomon put it 3,000 years ago, “Be sure to know the condition of your flocks, give careful attention to your herds; for riches do not endure forever. . . .” (Proverbs 27.23-24).

Or, in my case, to the condition of your fire extinguishers. Today I figured out that my procrastinating on some fire prevention upgrades on this building may have contributed to the loss of four of the units and to making five families temporarily homeless. Fortunately, there were no serious injuries.

As I walked through the rubble with the insurance adjuster this morning, what saddened me most was the ruined possessions of the families that lived there. Ash covered family photos and drawings taped to the charred walls. A heart with a child’s printed “I love you” tossed in the rented dumpster. Clothing & furniture tossed, by residents I knew had no renters’ insurance to reimburse them.

Then came the conversation with the the resident who attempted to put out the grease fire on his neighbor’s stove. “If only we could have found a fire extinguisher, we might have been able to limit it to the stove,” he told me.

Ironically, three hours before the fire started, I was in a fire prevention store ordering fifteen fire extinguishers. Delivery is scheduled for next week. I’d intended to get around to it months ago. I thought we had some extinguishers in the office, but also thought we should try some wall mounts outside, in cases, to see if we could make them more accessible while minimizing vandalism.

I had been thinking about mounting one just outside the door of the unit where the fire started. A $60 expense that might have prevented a $100,000 loss. Solomon got it right–pay attention to the basics. Know what’s going on. Don’t get so caught up in what the market’s doing or in what’s new to neglect the basics.

We still need to keep up with current trends. We’re getting more resident leads from Craig’s List today than from newspaper ads, for example. But the basic, unglamorous things like fire safety, grounds keeping, resident selection and screening, cost containment, client satisfaction are still what will make or break any business. That goes for rental property and for home ownership.

Part of the problem is that the Urgent is rarely Important, and the Important is rarely Urgent. But that “stitch in time” still can save nine stiches later.

The city Fire Chief recommended 5 pound (net) rechargeable fire extinguishers with metal heads & spouts, rated ABC (trash/wood, grease, & electrical fires). Actually at least 2A10BC. Around $40 at Lowes, slightly less in quantity at Maintenance USA. Roughly another $35 for the safety case. You might want to pick up one to keep near your kitchen or garage at home. And at least one more for any rental properties you own.

The same principal applies to what’s much more important than possessions: Family, relationships, health, friendships, our walk with God. Pay attention! Don’t neglect the important for the urgent. Keep your priorities straight. Do some preventative maintenance. It’s easier to install fire extinguishers than to gut & rebuild apartments, but apartments can often be rebuilt much easier than relationships. It’s far easier to fix ruined buildings than ruined lives.

That’s not to say there isn’t hope for even the most hopeless situation. That’s just one of the many wonderful messages of Easter. Just today I passed a church with a sign, “Nothing is Too Hard for God.” Guess someone knew I needed that today. Just like eleven discouraged disciples 2,000 years ago, after their Messiah was arrested, unjustly convicted, and crucified. But, as one of my favorite sermons says, “It’s Friday, but Sunday’s coming!” God can redeem any situation if we let him.

But the first step could be to prevent the situation from getting any worse. Take it from someone who learned that lesson the hard way!

Earlier today we discussed the stats that showed median prices in Southern California as a whole were down 19% last month from their peak in July of 2007, also touching on our projections for the rest of this year (”So Cal Price Update”).

Frankly, in our primary market areas of West Orange County and Greater Long Beach, we believe prices actually peaked in the summer of 2006, based on comparable homes. DataQuick’s 7 county numbers were skewed by the huge foreclosure problems in the Inland Empire, as well as inherent flaws in their median pricing system. The Orange County Register’s Real Estate Blog has a good summary and explanation of 8 different indexes & their most recent reports for Orange County. DataQuick showed the greatest year-over-year decline (16% in O.C.), while the other indexes ranged from 15% to 6% drops.

Basically, we still believe we’re in uncharted territory & nobody knows what’s next, as we wrote back in November (”How Low Will Prices Go?”).

Our recommendation for Los Angeles and Orange County buyers and sellers is still to focus primarily on where you are in life, not where the market is. Since nobody really knows what’s next, don’t get too obsessed with what the future holds.

If selling makes sense, why roll the dice & wait up to six years (or more?) for prices possibly to just get back where they are now?

As for buying, if you can buy a home that works for you with a 30 year fixed loan, why gamble on rates or prices going up, or waste several years of your life gambling things will get worse before they get better. (see “What to Do When Nobody Knows What’s Next.”)

We’re not saying it’s time to buy for speculative reasons, and we certainly wouldn’t be trying to “flip” right now unless I got an extraordinarily good buy (and that does happen in market’s like this). I’m certainly not saying we’ve hit bottom.

We’re saying nobody really knows, because we’ve never seen anything like this. For example–we think the Fed caught just about everybody by surprise this week with their creative moves to enhance liquidity.

Who know what might come next? If some lenders were smart, they’d just shave $100,000 off the loan if needed to avoid foreclosure. They’d certainly drop interest rates or eliminate the obscene resets they have coming. (Of course, if they were smart, they wouldn’t have made 100% loans to subprime borrowers without income verifications when the market was obviously peaking, but maybe they can learn. . . .)

We’re saying nobody knows what the future holds, especially this time. So if you’ve always dreamed of a home on a lake in Lake Forest & find one that works for you with 30 year fixed financing, & if you’ve got a stable job & aren’t moving, why not make an offer & start living your dream? If it works, maybe you should let your life determine decisions, not speculation. Here’s a novel thought: think of it as a home, not a piggy bank!

Ditto to sellers. Forget what your neighbor got 2 years ago. Prices on your next home are down too, and so are interest rates. Maybe you can’t get the triple garage, but maybe you never would. If everything else works, give it a shot. You’re not getting any younger!

We’ve watched the market and buyers and sellers for 30 years, and we see some unique opportunities right now that may not last. And we see too many people making decisions based on ego or gambling in stead of getting on with their lives.

Feel free to call 562 822 SOLD or simply comment if you want specific input on your situation.