So Cal Real Estate News

Foreclosures are up, sales are up, closings are tougher, and rental vacancies are down.  And one of the smartest investors I know is making offers again, even as he puts his own home on the market.

That’s what we’re seeing from both sides of the Los Angeles County and Orange County lines.

Total Southern California homes available for sale, from Santa Barbara to San Diego, stands at about 163,500, which is down about 3% from the 169,000 we peaked at about three months ago. In less built-out Orange County, inventory is down more dramatically.

David Haas, our favorite local property manager says his vacancies have declined, largely due to an influx of former homeowners vacating after foreclosure and/or short sale.

The managing partner at the real estate office we work out of reports new escrows for April were the best in about nine months, before the subprime crisis. April’s numbers were modestly better than February’s, with March serving as a trough in between. This is actually fairly typical in real estate–many agents tend to get one or two deals into escrow, then focus on closing them before opening new escrows.

However, escrows remain difficult to close, for several reasons. The reason you hear about most has to do with the difficulty qualifying for a loan, and who can blame lenders for tightening up, given their current onslaught of foreclosures. Of course, sub-prime loans have pretty much dryed up, and most lenders are looking for at least 10% down and good FICO scores for no-verification loans. In problem areas with lots of foreclosures, FHA is requiring 5% down, rather than the traditional 3%.

Some escrows are harder to close because they’re “short sales,” where the current lender must accept a discounted, or “short” payoff in order to facilitate a sale and avoid foreclosure. It’s not uncommon for these to fall out of escrow, either due to the lender refusing to accept the discount, making unreasonable demnads, or just taking too long to respond.

However, enough sales are falling out right now that we’re starting to put in “back up” offers on occasion.

As discussed in our prior post, DataQuick’s latest Orange County medians indicate a modest increase in prices as well.

What’s it all mean? Well, the increase in pending sales & prices is pretty typical for springtime (see “Predictions 101: SoCal’s 2 market cycles“), so that doesn’t prove anything in itself.

However, with the ever increasing number of foreclosed homes hitting the market, stabilization in prices is a good thing.

Have we hit a bottom? In number of sales, we’re pretty sure we have. In price, we’re not so sure. The dramatic and rapid decline in home values is bringing buyers back into the market, but continuing foreclosures are keeping the inventory high. As we move into fall and winter, the number of buyers normally decreases, but most indicators are that foreclosures will continue strong through November at least (See “SoCal defaults up: What it means“).

Two key factors are mortgage interest rates and the economy. Were rates to decline, that could bring in more buyers, but long term rates are slowly moving up. Rising inflation will probably continue that trend, at least over the short term.

As for the economy, it’s hard to say, but interest rates and economic indicators move in opposite directions, so there’s some automatic self-correction there. If the economy continues to falter, longer term rates are apt to decline. If the economy starts picking up steam rates will go up. Probably a wash over all, although a return to “stagflation” (stagnant economy with inflation), a possible worst-case scenario, can’t be ruled out.

Ironically, a return of inflation would eventually push home values higher, but would push them down short term.

There are still so many variables, we’re not ready yet to depart from our mantra, “We’re in unprecedented territory, and nobody can really know what’s ahead.”  (See “How low will prices go?“)

Here are the things we’re relatively confident of:

• Long term interest rates will continue to climb slowly for the time being.
• There’s still time for potential buyers to begin saving a down payment, but they do need to start now.
• So Cal homes are unlikely to return to their peak prices in this decade.
• If you buy a home with a 15-year fixed mortgage and do not refinance or add a HELOC or 2nd, you will own it free and clear in 15 years.
• Most of us aren’t as smart as we think we are, so if a home you like makes sense  for you with a fixed loan, and you’re not planning on moving soon, you should seriously consider buying.  We probably aren’t at the bottom, but we may be close, and nobody will know for sure until a few years after it’s passed.
• By the same token, it makes no sense to hold off on selling until you can get the ridiculous price your neighbor got at the insane peak.  If you can do most of what you want to with what your home will net today, go for it–NOW.    The next month or two might be your best opportunity for a while.
• By the same token

Dave here, with a sad, true story that might make you think twice before investing out of state.

Back in 2004 I decided that ten years was probably about it for our California real estate boom. (Turns out it should have been. Unfortunately, I was about two years early with that call–see “How we got into this mess.”) (For our current market forecast, see “A Change in Our Predictions?“)

Barb & I are buy & hold investors, but it seemed it might be time to liquidate at least one or two of our local rentals. To avoid capital gain taxes, we decided to use a 1031 Starker delayed exchange to purchase in an area where prices might be nearing a bottom. The ultimate in market timing–something I’d wished I’d done back in 1991, the last time our local market peaked.

After researching markets from Las Vegas to Florida I found a complex with upside potential in a small town with a fairly strong economy. As an added plus, we have family living fairly nearby.

So we sold a rental house in Lakewood, and bought 90 some units in 12 brick buildings in McMinnville, Tennessee. The 90+ units only cost two and a half times the house’s selling price. Sure looked like going from the top of the California market to the bottom of the rural Tennessee market to me. (Perhaps this whole experience has influenced my thoughts on market timing.)

Well, Barb & I have been spending time & losing money in Tennessee ever since. I knew it was a major turnaround project, but we’ve had great success with turnarounds before. But those were nearby in Southern California, not two time zones away.

I recently discussed my Tennessee challenges with David Haas, the best property manager I know in So Cal (or anywhere). He’s been following my saga for several years, offering helpful pointers along the way. This time he nailed it.

“You know, Dave, a number of my owners exchanged out of state over the last few years. It’s gone badly for every one of them.”

He went on to detail the particularly sad saga of one landlord who eventually lost his equity and his Texas apartments and then took a huge tax hit from the capital gains he’d deferred when he exchanged into it.

There are several reasons for this common woe, most of them obvious. Most experts agree your property should be close enough you can drive by it occasionally. What I didn’t realize is that letting locals know you live out of state is like walking around with a “Kick Me!” sign taped to your back. Or a bullseye on your wallet. And once a Californian opens his mouth in rural Tennessee, they know you “ain’t from aroun’ heah.”

I also had no idea how much looser disclosure and construction standards are in rural Tennessee. Our seller disclosure laws aren’t perfect here, but to me California looks like consumer heaven compared to Tennessee. And building codes in unincorporated areas? Non existent, as far as I can tell!

Eventually, I had to hire my Tennessee son-in-law to supervise the units. He’s not David Haas yet, but he’s learning, and he’s honest. He’s now got his own management firm, Sasser and Thrasher (I’m not making this up). They’re now also managing units for other out-of-state owners, most of whom were ripped off by their former managers. Like another Californian, who flew out to inspect the six new roofs he’d paid for, only to find they didn’t exist.

As for us, I hope we’re finally starting to turn a corner. The day may come when Barb & I are glad we own The Meadows Apartments. But the price to get there was way more than we expected. We did much better during the ‘91 - ‘95 recession, when we stayed close to home and exchanged from single family rentals to multi family units.

So, before you jump on something out of state think twice. And pray thrice. At least. If it’s an area you know, maybe one you intend to retire to or have family in, it might be worth considering. But I’d start by checking out foreclosures and motivated sellers throughout Southrn Califonra before going out of state.

The Inland Empire and desert regions are about as far from home as I’d recommend going. We do think eventually things will turn around here (see “What’s Next For Southern California Housing?“) We think some parts of the I.E. may eventually bounce back like South Orange County did from the last biggie back in the 90’s.

Southern California still has lots to offer that few, if any, other places on earth can match!

When it comes to going out of state, I now think of what my mom used to tell me: “The grass is always greener in the other fellow’s lawn!” Or so you think–until you own it!

April 25 update: For the latest installment in this ongoing adventure in out of state investing, check out my April 25 post from Tennessee.

In our last post we explained why we agree with Freddie Mac’s chief economist, Frank Northaft that “We just don’t know [when the market will hit bottom or how low prices will drop] because we’re in totally uncharted territory.”

As if to illustrate our point, since we wrote that we’ve seen huge swings in stocks as Federal Reserve leaders twice surprised the markets with supposedly clear indications they intend to further reduce rates.

Now, as promised, we tackle the logical next question of what buyers and sellers should do in such an uncertain situation.

The key is to base your decision making primarily on what you know, not on speculation about market trends. Market timing is nice, but it’s highly speculative and subject to surprises from the Feds, politicians, consumers, other nations, and even terrorist attacks. Instead of trying to precisely time the market, figure out what you really want or need and brainstorm options, work, & wait until you find an acceptable solution.

As my mortgage broker once told me when I was trying to time the interest rate market in locking a loan, “if the loan works at the current rate, go ahead & take it. ” In other words, don’t gamble on something that works. As my mother used to say, “A bird in the hand is worth 2 in the bush.”

This approach usually works with buying, if 3 conditions are met:

1. You’re planning to live in the home for a long time, 5 - 10 years.

2. You’re buying with a loan that’s fixed for at least 10 - 15 years.

3. You’ve got fairly stable income.

If it works, do it. The better it works, the more you should do it. Especially if you like the location and the floorplan. After all, location is the one thing you can’t change, condition is the easiest thing to change.

The same goes for selling. If you can sell & move up to your dream home at today’s prices, don’t roll the dice on prices going up. Especially any time soon. A year from now you may wish you’d sold today. What your neighbor got two years ago is irrelevent–the question is, will today’s price work for you?

For those of us who are people of faith, we’d add in prayer. God is the only one who does know what the future holds, but he’s also a lot more concerned about our character than our money. (Actually God’s the only one with a perfect perspective on money, too.)

King Solomon was the wisest and richest monarch of his day and he said it well: “Trust in the Lord with all your heart, and don’t rely on your own understanding. In all your ways acknowledge Him, and He will direct your paths.” (Proverbs 3:5,6) That worked almost 3,000 years ago, & it still works today.