So Cal Real Estate News

Default Research, Inc. has posted their California county by county foreclosure numbers for March, and So Cal county numbers are pretty much up across the board to the highest numbers yet for the current downturn.

This report is made up primarily of Notice of Defaults (NODs), the first step in the 4 month foreclosure process. It sounds like the number of bank owned (REO) homes coming on the market will continue to increase well into fall throughout Southern California.

Bear in mind that filing for bankruptcy can add several months to that 4 month process, and additional time is required by the lender to gain occupancy and then make any needed repairs. So these NODs reported for March will be coming on the market as REOs no earlier than July, and well into fall. Of course, not all NOD properties end up foreclosed. (For tips on buying foreclosures, click here: “Foreclosure Tips.”)

But there’s a big “if.” One of the unknowns is what will end up in the Housing Relief Act currently working it’s way through Congress. If Congress gets it right, that could dramatically reduce the number of homes actually taken back by the banks.

We’re hoping Congress and/or the lenders come up with a reasonable program to allow qualified owners to hold onto their homes, but we’re not exactly holding our breath, either. We think debt relief for qualified buyers primarily provided by their lender in exchange for concessions by Congress and the borrower could significantly mitigate the impact of all these foreclosures on the market, but I’m starting to sound like Bernanke, which is really scary!

So I’ll leave what Congress might do for another post, except to say two things:

1. Some home owners who bought with subprime 100% liar loans that really have no business owning property.
2. We are at some risk of another Great Depression caused by the current crisis, and if some unworthy homeowners and lenders are helped in the process of saving the rest of us, so be it. When my lifeboat’s sinking, I prefer to focus on bailing it out rather than arguing about who got us into the mess. “Blessed are the merciful. . . ” wasn’t my idea, but it saves a lot of grief in the long run.

Bottom line: Looks like the bottom for prices is still a ways off, maybe a long ways. Like Freddie Mac’s Chief Economist told us last October, we’re in uncharted territory, and nobody really knows what’s going to happen next (see “How Low Will Prices Go?“).

That said, we’re still sticking to our best guess that prices are most likely to hit bottom either this December or next (see our most recent projections post, “A Change in Our Projections?”

BTW, this market is troubled, but not dead. We just put our last listing into escrow in 3 days last week. Like we keep saying, it’s not rocket science (see “How to Sell Your So Cal Home for Top Dollar in 30 Days“).

Default Research uses actual visits to the court houses to collect their data, which should make it more accurate and more timely than most other foreclosure reporting services. If you want to look directly at their charts for every county in California going back to 2006, just click here. We also have a direct link to their “California N.O.D. (Foreclosure) Stats” under “Great Links” near the top of our right sidebar.

You will see each Southern California county had a new record for NODs in March, with one anomaly. Most lenders do not file NODs over the Christmas holiday period. (I’ve been told that’s because lenders really aren’t total Scrooges, but I suspect it may also be because they take some time off then.) So you will notice NODs were down about 50% across the board for December, but up about 50% for January. That’s why some counties show higher numbers for January than for March–but not if you average the two winter months.

Stay tuned for more breaking news as our adventure in So Cal real estate continues. . . .

In the meantime, forward to our next post, “Let’s Go Ducks!”, for something a little more positive. We hope.

We’ve been getting some new visitors to our site recently, so please allow us to briefly reintroduce ourselves, to offer some insights into how we’re organized, and to ask for some help from our readers.

Who We Are

I’m Dave Emerson, the lead writer here, & I’ve lived in Southern California since I was born in L.A. in 1950. My wife and I started bought our first home in Lakewood in 1976, I became a Realtor in 1980 and a licensed broker in 1982. About that time we also bought our first rental, I started writing a real estate newsletter and I began teaching real estate classes for buyers, sellers, and investors.

My colleague, Blair Newman, is also an experienced Realtor and educator. He represents the younger generation. We have both won numerous awards over the year, and we share five “Agent of the Year” awards between us. Our goal on this blog is to give you a front-row view of what we see going on in the Southern California real estate “trenches” right now. We also try to link to and/or pass on information we find helpful or interesting, to respond to your comments or suggestions, and to give our perspective on what’s going on & what’s coming next.

Help Wanted

Our “challenge” (we never have “problems” in the real estate business) is that we know a whole lot more about real estate than I do about blogging. I’ve been deeply involved in real estate for over 30 years, and marginally involved in blogging for all of 4 months.

Hopefully that’s a good thing, because you came here to get helpful info on real estate, not on blogging. But if you know more about blogging than I do (and you probably do), then you’ll probably notice a lot of things I could be doing better. Please don’t hesitate to post questions, comments about how to do this better, suggested topics or links. . . or to tell others about our site. We appreciate your help, and respond here to every comment posted.

Getting Around Our Blog

This blog’s been up and running since last October, and we’ve gotten up a fair number of posts in that time. To help you find what might most interest you, we’ve got several “widgets” on the sidebar to your right.

At the top, we have a list of seven categories to help you find what you may be looking for quickly. Click on a category that interests you, and this left hand main column will change to display all the posts under that category, in chronological order.

Below Categories we’ve listed our five most recent posts in chronological order–just click to go directly to that post. Our “Front Page” (click upper left corner to get there, if you aren’t already) displays all our posts in chronologial order in the main, left column, so if you’re there you can also scroll down if you prefer.

Below the most recent you’ll find a list of top posts, the ones currently getting the most views.

Below that our archives widget lets you go back to any specific month, and below that we’ll be posting links to some of our favorite real estate blogs on our blogroll.