CA Realtors’ Economist: Bottom this Year
Posted in Market Trends and Projections | By Blair Newman and Dave Emerson | Tags: California Real Estate Projections, California Real Estate Trends, Los Angeles County Real Estate Projections, Orange County Real Estate trends, real estate projections, real estate trends, So Cal Real Estate Trends
This one seemed to fly under the radar of most media, but C.A.R’s Chief Economist recently revised her 2008 projections from the figures released in Anaheim last October.
Total sales statewide were revised down a modest half a percent to 332,100, but her projected CA decline in the median price for a single family home was increased a whopping 50%, to a 9%! Leslie Appleton-Young also now projects that units sold will bottom this year, but with only modest improvement in 2009. Apparently her jury’s still out on when prices will hit bottom.
We like Leslie & have followed her reports for years, but you have to remember who pays her salary. Last October we indicated that it would most likely be worse than she predicted. Unfortunately, we were right then, & she’s still probably still a bit too optimistic.
Click here for The Register’s summary of Leslie’s recent remarks, and
here for a PDF version of the original, October report. Our most recent projections are here, and our thoughts on who should be buying or selling now haven’t changed from what we wrote in December, a classic piece on balancing market timing with your personal situation, even if we do say so ourselves.
Tags: California Real Estate Projections, California Real Estate Trends, Los Angeles County Real Estate Projections, Orange County Real Estate trends, real estate projections, real estate trends, So Cal Real Estate Trends
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March 31st, 2008 at 2:49 am
Good projections, however, if everything could be projected, there would be no interesting business :), so I think you are a bit too hard on Leslie. I hope the bottom will be hit as soon as possible. I am member of West Toronto realtor team and despite Canadian situation being calm, it’s matter of time when US market problems spread also here, so the sooner it stops, the better for all of us…
March 31st, 2008 at 6:08 am
West Toronto,
As Ducks fans, we don’t want to get too chummy with a colleague from “the true North, strong and free,” but it’s nice to hear from someone not yet affected by this crisis who recognizes that ultimately we’re all in this together!
As for Leslie, we said we liked her–how easy do you want us to be on her? She does her job very well, and if all Realtors had her intelligence and clarity we wouldn’t have to spend so much time following up on buyers’ agents.
But it was one of her top assistants who pointed out to us years ago that they were aware of who paid their salary. So sometimes her perspectivew, like that of all of us, gets warped.
Take this example, from an article on interest only loans in The San Francisco Chronicle, May 20, 2005:
California Association of Realtors economist Leslie Appleton-Young admits there are some troubling potential scenarios for interest-only borrowers. But she argues that the loans are just the latest advance in the mortgage market. Little outright speculation is occurring, she said. The popularity of the loans reflects the fact that they allow people to get into homes they otherwise wouldn’t be able to afford.
“Given the performance of the housing market over the long-term, instruments that help people get into the housing market are a good thing,” she said.
But she’s still one of our favorite economists, and the only one we know who focuses primarily on real estate in California.
You are right, however, that she can’t be faulted for not batting 1,000 (a baseball term) on her predictions, because nobody really knows what may come next (”How Low Will Prices Go?“)
May your economy remain strong, may ours begin recovering soon, and may the Ducks keep Lord Stanley’s Cup right here in Southern California.
Hey, agreeing on 2 out of 3 ain’t bad!